We are "lucky" to live in interesting times! We witness events unfolding before our eyes that, if official history doesn't lie, have already occurred in the early 20th century. These are the precursors to the First and, of course, the Second World Wars. Only now, it's happening on an entirely new level. Understandably, human civilization has reached new heights in its development, formed new types of relationships, invented and embraced new technologies, propelling it to even higher levels of progress... Idyll! Live and rejoice!
And yet, it's not so! Then and now, there are individuals who wish to reformat global or at least regional relations under the seemingly justifiable pretext of feeling marginalized, mistreated, unappreciated, and unloved. In their resentment, they begin to stir up "dust" around the world. Nowadays, this is called "addressing geopolitical issues."
All this allegory is directed at the Russian political leadership and, specifically, President Putin, under whose guidance today's Russia has become a threat to the West, and its military expansion has extended to neighboring Ukraine, posing a threat to neighboring EU/NATO countries.
Currently, one of the key processes in Europe, and perhaps in the world, is a special military operation (SMO), or simply put, the war being conducted by Russia in Ukraine. Starting nearly a year and a half ago, it has now transitioned from an active offensive phase by Russia to a phase of positional confrontation, characterized by significant human (thousands of lives), material, and resource losses on both sides.
The fact that Russia has unleashed a war in Ukraine, within a society that has long established civilized relations, is outrageous and highly negative. The chosen method of warfare by Russia vividly demonstrates how aggressive and unacceptable its leadership and policies are to civilized humanity.
It is evident that once Russia achieves its strategic goals in Ukraine, it will likely intensify its territorial ambitions towards countries in its immediate vicinity (former USSR countries), and the already well-prepared Russian military might initiate invasions of the Baltic countries or Moldova. The prospect of a full-scale Russian invasion could also loom over Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) and NATO. Speculating on their future actions at this point is not feasible. But who knows what actions the Russian leadership, fueled by its perceived successes, will take at that time? Will Europe be prepared to withstand the pressure? Will there be enough forces and resources to maintain the balance?
The presented scenario is indeed quite pessimistic. However... The only objective and correct position for the civilized world has been and can only be full-scale support for Ukraine in its struggle for sovereignty and territorial integrity. It turns out that Ukraine has become a forefront in resisting global Russian aggression.
At the same time, in an era of interconnected global economic relations and influences, the consequences of the confrontation between these two countries have inevitably affected the European (and beyond) system of relations in all its spheres. The questions of collective security and military cooperation have gained particular importance today. In the face of Putin's aggressive war, NATO cannot solely be a defensive alliance. The Alliance must adapt to geopolitical turbulence and threats emanating from Russia.
In these circumstances, the question of expanding the number of NATO member states becomes more relevant than ever before. It is undeniable that only strength can be opposed with strength, and collective strength at that. Confronting the "Russian bear" alone is a challenging process for smaller European countries. Finland and, in the near future, Sweden are clear examples of this.
And here is Ukraine... Despite the comprehensive and active support (military-technical, financial, humanitarian) from the collective West, it still confronts a monstrous and aggressive neighbor. Bearing immense losses... Human losses. Economic losses. Territorial losses... This list is far from complete, and the continuation of the war will only expand it, along with increasing the number of war victims. This war, pardon the cynicism, has formed the European "security belt" since, despite significant problems in the energy, economic, and political spheres of Europe, there is no war on its territory.
In the context of the foregoing, it becomes evident that Ukraine's integration into NATO is the only way to create a security belt for Europe. The understanding of Ukraine's key role in European stability has already emerged, and 20 NATO countries, not only European ones, have agreed on this step. In May of this year, NATO countries such as Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Finland supported Ukraine's membership in the Alliance. Canada, by announcing a military aid package of 500 million Canadian dollars to Ukraine, has officially expressed the same position.
It remains just a little bit to officially solidify the opinion of NATO member countries regarding Ukraine's accession to their ranks. And the evolving situation indicates that at the NATO summit in Vilnius, which will take place in July, Ukraine will finally receive a strategic message that will determine the further algorithm of its integration into the Alliance. It's long overdue. If Ukraine were a NATO member, there would not have been a bloody full-scale war in the center of Europe. Let us believe in the sound judgment of the Alliance's political leadership.
Meanwhile, the upcoming Ramstein should become another symbol of support for Ukraine from the West and determine additional options in armament that will accelerate the victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the Russian army. It is worth recalling the hesitations and concerns of leaders in many Western countries regarding whether Ukraine can effectively use high-tech weapons such as air defense systems, precision weapons, tanks, aircraft... The answer is obvious: YES! THEY CAN! It is also evident that much depends on Ukraine now for the swift conclusion of the war in the center of Europe and victory over the Russian aggressor, who poses a threat to European stability!
Ukraine must receive all the necessary support for Russia to suffer a strategic failure since Putin aims to restore the practice of territorial seizures, which threatens to completely destabilize Europe.
The recent events indicate Russia's preparation for a new phase of confrontation. In Ukraine. In Europe. In the world.
It must be acknowledged that Russia still possesses significant military-industrial and financial resources for war. The global economic sanctions gradually yield results, but not as quickly as desired. According to Putin's assurances, the country has sufficient means to sustain and modernize its military, with defense enterprises operating in three shifts. There are also "partners" who bypass the sanctions by supplying ammunition, components, and weapon samples to Russia.
Russia has the capacity for mobilization. According to official sources, Russia's mobilization potential is estimated at around 25 million people. Lessons have been learned from the special military operation in Ukraine. In the Kremlin, the results have been assessed, mistakes acknowledged, and measures determined to rectify the shortcomings.
In the end, "the objectives have been set, the tasks are clear. Let's get to work!" However, will it be easier for European democracies and others if Russia achieves its goals and objectives?
Is Europe ready to withstand the pressure? Will there be sufficient strength and resources to maintain a balance?
Clearly, the time has come for NATO as an alliance and a unified structure to make effective decisions regarding the confrontation with Russia and its geopolitical ambitions!
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