Berlin's partial rerun of the 2021 vote has seen much lower turnout than a normal vote tends to attract, slight gains for right-of-center parties, and slight losses for the members of the current national coalition.
Half a million Berliners were called to return to the polls on Sunday for a repeat of Germany's federal election two years ago after officials in the capital were found to have bungled the original vote.
Results on Sunday evening pointed to the sort of trends those following recent polls in Germany would expect, albeit perhaps in a more understated form: slight gains for the conservative opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and for the far-right opposition Alternative for Germany (AfD), and relatively modest losses for the three parties that make up the ruling coalition at the national level.
Berlin's mayor Kai Wegner attributed his party's gains to the work of the city state's local government, which is currently a coalition of the CDU and center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), and also something of a rarity for the capital.
"It's above all a result of us doing good work as a government in Berlin," Wegner said on regional public broadcaster RBB. "We have a good atmosphere around the CDU in the city."
Overall pecking order unchanged
With all votes counted, the CDU was able to improve its result in Berlin by 1.3 percentage points to 17.2%. The AfD also gained one point to 9.4%.
The parties in the federal coalition government lost accordingly. The SPD lost 1.2 percentage points, but remained the strongest party with 22.2%. The environmentalist Greens followed with 22.0% (down 0.3 points). The business-focused Free Democratic Party (FDP) achieved 8.1% (minus 0.9 points).
The Left Party gained 0.5 points and achieved 11.5%.
The overall ranking of the major parties by their share of the vote, however, looked set to remain unchanged in the left-leaning city — with the SPD the largest party, followed by the Greens, then the Christian Democrats, then the Free Democrats, then the socialist Left Party and finally the AfD.
Turnout, which all the major parties had mentioned as a concern as part of Berlin was called to a third vote in comparatively short order, looked set to be considerably lower than would be normal in a full-blown federal election.
The leading SPD candidate, Franziska Giffey, said people should not read too much into this, however.
"I believe you can't draw many conclusions for future votes," she said. "This was an exceptional election, it's a very limited number of voting districts [participating]," she told the German DPA news agency.
Why was the partial rerun necessary?
In December, the country's Constitutional Court ordered a partial rerun after numerous mishaps were discovered during the original election on September 26, 2021,
They included incorrect ballot papers, ballots going missing and queues of people waiting outside polling stations after voting had ended.
Some voters didn't get to vote amid the chaos, while others cast their ballots after the media had already published result projections.
The Berlin Marathon was held on the same day, making it more difficult for officials to deliver replacement ballots to voting locations.
Berlin has already held a rerun on the state vote, which was held alongside the federal election in 2021, and which resulted in a change of mayor.
Could the result change the German government?
Sunday's rerun affected around a fifth of Berlin constituencies — about 455 of the city's 2,256 electoral wards — but will not alter Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left coalition as less than 1% of the country's voters will be participating.
Despite having little impact on the makeup of the federal government, voters could make minor changes in the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament.
Berlin currently sends 29 of the 736 lawmakers to the Bundestag and some were at risk of losing their seats.
Voters could send a warning to Scholz's coalition
The rerun served as a litmus test of the popularity of the governing coalition, made up of the SPD, Greens and the FDP.
Scholz's government has seen its support sink as the country deals with an economic downturn due to the lasting effects of high inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine, as well as falling demand for German exports.
The far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has seen a resurgence in popularity, particularly in eastern Germany over the past two years, as it campaigns against increasing immigration.
However, the party did not make major gains in the Berlin as it does not have the same level of support in the capital.
Rerun could cause new issues
Some Berliners have questioned the need to hold a rerun so shortly before Germany's next federal election — due no later than October 26 next year.
Another complication is that some Berliners have reached the voting age since 2021 and are eligible to take part, while others have, over the past two years, moved into areas holding the fresh vote.
A further hurdle is that the same candidates must stand as in the original vote, even though one former lawmaker, Birgit Malsack-Winkemann from the AfD, is in custody, accused of supporting a far-right terrorist organization.
In the meantime, three states, Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, are due to hold regional elections in September.
German voters will also participate in the European parliamentary elections in June.
Source: Dw
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