Events in February 2022 clearly demonstrated that strategic uncertainty regarding Ukraine's NATO membership has damaged European security. Additionally, the unprecedentedly rapid integration of Finland into the Alliance showed that Russia, despite its threats of "immediate response" to NATO expansion along its borders, did not exceed the framework of these threats.
Over the course of 16 months of war against Ukraine, Russian military capabilities have been significantly weakened, and this opportunity must be seized. A weakened, unstable, and internally conflicted Russia, which still possesses the second-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, poses an increased risk to European security. This necessitates further and expedited reinforcement of the Eastern flank. Ukraine's accession to NATO is the best and most advantageous scenario for both parties. By expanding the Alliance's Eastern flank, European security will be strengthened, and its ranks will be supplemented with an experienced ally that has stood against one of the largest armies in the world during the invasion, when international assessments critically endangered Ukraine's sovereignty and integrity.
During the period of repelling Russian aggression, Ukraine has demonstrated that it is an integral part of the European family and serves as an essential security component. By deterring Russian aggression on its territory, Ukraine serves as a guarantor of peace in Europe. It is easy to assume that in the absence of resistance, Russia would have stopped at the complete occupation of Ukraine, using it as a springboard for further offensives against Europe. Therefore, Ukraine is an important border for the defense of Europe as a whole.
Based on this, Ukraine's accession to NATO should be expedited, and even in the case of post-war integration, the Atlantic path for Ukraine should be as least Atlantic as possible. It is crucial to avoid repeating the mistakes of Bucharest in 2008 when the world hesitated and underestimated the threat from Russia. As a result, Moscow still attacked Ukraine, despite it not posing any threat whatsoever. However, Ukraine's accession to NATO would be the most effective deterrent for Russia, which would not abandon its desire for revenge and, after amassing strength, would attempt further aggression. Such is its imperialist nature. It can be said with certainty that a repeated invasion would be even more brutal, and if Russia manages to enter EU territory, it will undoubtedly commit even greater acts of terrorism and genocide against the civilian population. Security is the foundation of stability, but strengthening it is not the only benefit that Ukraine's NATO membership will bring. The logic is simple: Ukraine's early victory would reduce defense spending as soon as possible, thus improving the economic atmosphere in Europe. Atlantic integration of Ukraine will be a boost for the European economy and, in a sense, a stimulus for its qualitative renewal. Post-war Ukraine will become a favorable environment for investment and a reliable business partner. Its security, supported by NATO guarantees, will have a positive impact on the economic climate of the entire Eastern European region. On the other hand, reconciliation with Russia and continued cooperation with it would mean the risk of stagnation, sanctions, and significant reputational risks.
Ukraine already meets a number of criteria for NATO membership. During the 16 months of the war against Russia, the country significantly modernized its defense sector through NATO weapon deliveries from partners, joint exercises, and the direct application of skills acquired by the Ukrainian armed forces. The Ukrainian army is now the most capable and experienced army in Europe, and Ukraine's accession to NATO essentially requires only the political will of the Alliance to restore Europe's historical dignity. Ukraine already has very close relations with NATO – further strengthened after February 24, 2022 – but formal membership in the Alliance is an immediate guarantee.
Vilnius is the best place where cooperation between Ukraine and NATO can reach a qualitatively new level. Any delay in the issue of Ukraine's Atlantic integration would be unfair to the Ukrainian people, who are actively fighting against the most brutal aggressor of modern times, and it could mean a repetition of the mistakes of the Bucharest summit in 2008, which would again strengthen Russia's confidence that it can influence the decisions of sovereign states. Collective cohesion and determination of the Alliance are what Russia fears and what is urgently needed now because only together can we defeat the bloody aggressor and restore stability in the European region.
Source: aktualnezpravodajstvi.cz
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