On February 24, 2022, Putin unleashed a full-scale war for the occupation of Ukraine. Russia has demonstrated its desire to revive the practice of territorial expansion, making it a "right of the strong." To achieve this, Putin has been waging a war in Ukraine since 2014, starting with the Russian forces, dressed in green uniforms without insignia, occupying Crimea. Subsequently, Putin resorted to fueling unrest in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, provoking an armed conflict in Donbass.
Simultaneously, Russia is testing the reaction of Western society to this precedent. Shortly before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin issued a well-known ultimatum to NATO, demanding a retreat to the borders of 1997. Putin's manipulation of history suggests that his territorial claims go beyond Ukraine. The Kremlin's colonial program may extend to Baltic countries, as well as Poland, parts of which were under Russian rule from 1772 to 1918. The majority of present-day Moldova was part of the Russian Empire, and Russian officials believe that this state could be next in their sight. Finland was also part of the Russian Empire from 1809 to 1918, but its entry into NATO on April 4, 2023, put an end to Putin's plans of possible aggression towards Helsinki. Putin's goal is to undermine the unity of the West, striking at its supranational institutions, primarily NATO, and then embarking on a large-scale territorial expansion into those European countries that were once within Russia's sphere of influence.
The Alliance must respond resolutely to the Russian threat, which is now closer to Europe than ever before. If Ukraine is not invited to join NATO during the Vilnius Summit, it will have serious negative consequences for the long-term security architecture on the European continent. It will be a clear indication that Putin has a veto power over NATO expansion. It will also mean that Europe will continue to be exposed to significant risks. The denial of Membership Action Plans (MAP) for Ukraine and Georgia at the Bucharest Summit in 2008 resulted in Russia's aggressive war against Georgia and later the occupation of Crimea and the war against Ukraine. Repeating these mistakes during the Vilnius Summit will lead to the same tragic consequences and further strengthen the Kremlin's expansionist policies.
Ukraine's membership in NATO is not just an opportunity to strengthen the Alliance's military capability. It is also a decision that will unite the West to ensure sustainable peace on the European continent. NATO was created in 1949 to collectively counter the Soviet Union's expansion in Europe. Today, Ukraine is fighting alone to achieve NATO's goal. It receives Western military assistance but wages the war on its own without security guarantees. For 16 months, Ukrainian soldiers, the country's military-political leadership, and Ukrainian society have demonstrated stronger motivation and ability to defend their land than any other country in Europe. If Ukraine joined NATO (and the EU), it would form a strong core of the "European army." But most importantly, Ukraine's NATO membership would neutralize the greatest security challenge to Europe posed by authoritarian Russia. From the very beginning of Ukraine's dialogue with NATO, the Kremlin has strongly opposed its accession to the Alliance. Putin understands that Ukraine's NATO membership poses no threat to Russia's security since NATO is a defensive Alliance that does not pose any military aggression towards his country. That is why Putin did not object to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Their membership brings NATO closer to the Russian border but does not undermine Russia's imperial idea. However, Ukraine's accession to NATO undermines Putin's "Novorossiya" ideology. Without this narrative, he loses the loyalty of many Russians based on imperial nostalgia. Fear of losing internal control is the main reason for Putin's fierce resistance to Ukraine's NATO membership.
Simo Mikkola
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