As of today, there are all the reasons to believe that Russia will soon declare a general mobilization. Of course, the main reason is to replenish the catastrophic losses of the Russian Armed Forces.
War correspondents on their channels are shouting louder and louder, even to the point of "no one left to hold the front." Until recently, this was not a reason for mobilization. This happened because the first wave a year ago resulted in political costs, a decline in ratings, and discontent in society. The Kremlin decided to do without a second wave. But Putin will have to reconsider this decision. How did the Russian authorities try to "do without a second wave"?
First, Prigozhin transferred tens of thousands of Russian prisoners to "cannon fodder." This resource is currently unavailable.
Second, despite all the rampant propaganda, Putin failed to make the war "popular." There are no queues at military enlistment offices. When the Kremlin talks about "volunteers," this includes convicts, migrants, and those who were conscripted by force, but there is still a shortage.
Third, the creation of private military companies (PMCs) within state corporations. The scale of mobilization within structures like Gazprom, Roscosmos, and Rostec has reached its limit, creating a problem of personnel shortage.
Fourth, the attempt to use migrants also failed. People preferred to leave rather than go to die.
The Kremlin has another option to replenish its army's losses – using servicemen from the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member countries in the hostilities in Ukraine. According to the treaty, Russia has five official allies in the CSTO: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. They are all obliged to come to each other's aid in case of an attack. However, no CSTO member has supported Russia's war in Ukraine with their armies.
Belarus allowed the use of its territory as a military base but did not send its own troops into the combat zone. Some CSTO members are attempting to distance themselves from the war.
Armenia is outraged that 3,500 Russian military personnel on its territory did not come to its aid during the wars with Azerbaijan in 2020 and 2023.
Perhaps the boldest stance on the war in Ukraine among all CSTO countries was taken by Kazakhstan. It is possible that this was related to the worsening of Russian-Kazakh relations and the issue of the status of Northern Kazakhstan territories. A week after the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called on Moscow and Kiev to negotiate. Statements from Astana followed, asserting that Ukraine must remain an independent and territorially integral state. From the beginning of the war, Kazakhstan has referred to it as a "war" and has promised to strictly observe Western sanctions against Russia. Tokayev also referred to the so-called "LPR" (Luhansk People's Republic) and "DPR" (Donetsk People's Republic) as "quasi-state entities" and stated that Kazakhstan has never recognized self-proclaimed states.
No country in the post-Soviet space is safe from Russia's aggressive actions. Wherever there is Russian presence, wars and chaos ensue. The examples of Georgia and Armenia are telling. In the same vein, a recent statement by Russian State Duma Deputy Evgeny Fedorov suggested that Russia may have to fight with all former Soviet republics. He emphasized that military conflicts can be avoided if the republics are returned through diplomatic means. Deputy Fedorov did not specify where these former Soviet countries should be returned to, presumably referring to the USSR.
The Kremlin has long ceased to be guided by common sense and is attempting to drag the CIS and CSTO countries into the abyss into which Russia itself is rapidly descending.
Source: oglavnom.top
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