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Escalation of Maritime Warfare following Moscow's Termination of the "Grain Agreement"



Putin's aggression against Ukraine has turned the Black Sea into a arena of military actions. Already on November 25, 2018, Russians committed an act of aggression against Ukrainian ships near the Kerch Strait. During that incident, Russia's hostile actions led to the capture of the vessels "Nikopol," "Berdyansk," "Yana Kapu," and 24 Ukrainian sailors. The sailors, who spent nine and a half months unjustly detained in Russian detention facilities, suffered psychological trauma. The ships, which Russia returned in 2019, were thoroughly plundered, inflicting significant material damage on the Ukrainian state.


The Russian fleet has been directly engaged in a full-scale invasion since 2022. The escalation of maritime warfare occurred after July 18, 2023 – the day Russia withdrew from the "grain deal." Russia initiated systematic attacks against Ukraine's maritime ports, not only those along the Black Sea but also those situated on the Danube River (another bombardment of Danube ports occurred on the night of August 2). Russia is effectively blockading the Black Sea. The Kremlin has declared all vessels traversing the Black Sea's waters towards Ukrainian ports as potential military targets. In essence, this time it has decided to blackmail the world with the sinking of international ships. According to Russia's Ministry of Defense, since the grain deal was not extended and the maritime humanitarian corridor is no longer in effect, security guarantees for foreign vessels in the Black Sea's waters are nullified.


Ukraine mirrored the statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense by warning that all ships moving in the Black Sea's waters toward Russian Black Sea ports and the harbors located in annexed territories may be regarded by Ukraine as transporting cargo of military nature with all corresponding risks. Ukraine declared a military threat to navigation in Russia's Black Sea ports. Ukraine's position is crystal clear. In times of war, it's logical to caution that the adversary's ports become unsafe; this aligns with international legal norms. Undoubtedly, Russia will loudly proclaim Ukraine's aggressive policy in the Black Sea, justifying post-factum shelling of Ukrainian coastal cities.


Ukraine possesses the means to combat the enemy fleet in any location within the Black Sea. Ukraine is capable of using surface drones and long-range precision missile strikes against fleet supply and logistics targets, keeping the Russian fleet under strain and depriving it of operational advantage. Within a day, naval drones struck Russian vessels in the Black Sea: on the night of August 4, significant damage was inflicted on the Russian Black Sea Fleet's large landing ship "Olenegorsky Gornyak" in the Novorossiysk Bay, and on the night of August 5, the Russian oil tanker SIG was damaged in the vicinity of Kerch. The SIG tanker, unlawfully present in Ukraine's territorial waters, was evidently selected as a target due to its history of servicing contracts for Russia's Ministry of Defense. This vessel provided military logistics to Russia in Crimea and has been under US sanctions since 2019 for providing aviation fuel to the Russian group in Syria.


Russian aggression in the Black Sea will meet an appropriate, robust, and symmetric response. Kyiv is sending a clear signal that Ukraine is capable of fighting against the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The fate of the cruiser "Moskva" and the incidents involving the "Olenegorsky Gornyak" BDK and the SIG tanker demonstrate that Ukraine's defense forces possess the necessary means to counter Russian aggression at sea.


Source: 24Brussels

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