And What Awaits Europe?
It would be difficult to deny, especially from European perspectives, that the war unleashed by Russia in Ukraine is not a key event, which has largely shaped the course of many processes in matters of European policy, economy, and other aspects in general, as well as individual states in particular. Indeed, a considerable part of the global community has felt the reverberations of this war, raging in what geographers claim to be the heart of Europe.
So, nearly eighteen months have passed since the beginning of Russian aggression in Ukraine. A year and a half... It is certainly not a 100-year or 30-year war known to the world, and in terms of its duration, it doesn't even come close to the First or Second World War. Eighteen months may not seem like a long time, but it clearly demonstrated how ill-prepared the global world is for cataclysms!
One might think, what could possibly happen in the world from a not-so-massive military operation that doesn't directly concern America, primarily the USA, or multinational Europe, let alone vast Asia? Well, apparently a lot! In this era of various global connections and dense intertwining, it unsettled everyone! Unwavering principles waver. "Eternal" allies "optimize" relationships. Rivers of energy flows - where they shrink or even change course altogether. Her Majesty "world economy," contemplating this cacophony, quietly but surely loses its mind, threatening to slip into recession. That's the kind of "picture" that emerged... To be frank – vivid but very sad... War, however you may name it (in Russia – it's called a "special military operation" or SVO), is still war. And its consequences are death, destruction, decline! And over the centuries, nothing changes!
But as it was in the past, so it is now – the question of "Who started it first? Who is the aggressor?" will always be relevant. The perpetrator, the aggressor in igniting this war, is evident – Russia! And no matter how its top leadership justifies its actions by the necessity of defending its suppressed national interests, in fact, it was the Russian army that invaded the territory of Ukraine, a sovereign state, and is conducting military operations there! For Ukraine and its people, this war has truly become a national one, as the existence of the state and the nation is at stake.
Having started almost a year and a half ago, the war has transitioned from a phase of active offensive actions by Russia to a phase of nearly positional confrontation, characterized by significant human (in the thousands), material, and resource losses on both opposing sides. It must be acknowledged here that the Ukrainian army has demonstrated the highest resilience and professionalism. Skillful decisions by its command and adept actions by soldiers compelled the Russians to retreat from Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson. Around the enigmatic city of Bakhmut alone, the Russian "second army of the world" "trampled" for more than a year! Moreover, it utilized, and quite abundantly, almost the entire range of available weaponry. From a military science perspective, such a result appears to be a rather dubious "achievement." Furthermore, during the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russians are relinquishing previously held positions, suffering significant losses. It should be noted that although the mentioned Ukrainian counteroffensive lacks high dynamism, it is progressing quite methodically, and the pattern of the Russians abandoning their positions is observed across a wide sector of the southeastern front. In doing so, they are incurring substantial losses in personnel and equipment.
Undoubtedly, the high level of motivation and professionalism among Ukrainian soldiers is the foundation of their achievements. However, it is also undeniable that without military-material and other support from the collective West, Ukraine would hardly be able to resist the Russian war machine for long and effectively. And if not for the Ukrainian battlefields, who knows where the Russians would have stopped, satisfying their geopolitical appetites...
Speaking of losses, let's consider available information from reliable sources and provide some indicators. Quite sorrowful ones. But in war – as in war. History knows no wars without soldiers' deaths.
Setting aside all emotions, dry statistics indicate that as of the current period of time in the war in Ukraine, the Russians have incurred losses among their personnel exceeding 250,000. Clearly, this figure, unfortunately, is far from final. By conducting simple calculations, we find that each day for eighteen months, the Russians lost about 500 soldiers! That's a shocking figure! There is hardly a European state, not to mention any other state in the world, that would treat its army, its soldiers, with such casualness! How can one not recall the infamous and inhumane saying of one of the "great Soviet" commanders of the Second World War that Russia is great, and Russian women will keep giving birth...
Indeed, Russia has been engaged in wars throughout its history, and since the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, it has consistently participated in various armed conflicts and wars. Starting from Chechnya and currently in Syria, it has suffered around 20,000 casualties over a span of 30 years. It's worth noting that this figure is comparable to the losses incurred by the USSR's successor, Russia, during the period from 1946 to 1991 (45 years), which amounted to around 18,000 casualties, with the Afghan War accounting for about 15,000 soldier's lives.
As we can see, the geopolitical appetite of the Kremlin leadership only grows with time. The current casualty figures of the Russian army are capable of shocking a civilized individual! However, the question of the social well-being of the population in Russia itself is not being addressed as a top priority... This might be why Russian women are not eager to give birth, and a demographic crisis is rapidly developing in Russia. And this is against the backdrop of significant military losses to the reproductive male population of Russia. The consequences are not far off...
Undoubtedly, the human resource is a determining factor in war. However, modern warfare is also a battle of technology and tactics. It's hardly a revelation that various combat operations, armed conflicts, and wars serve as the best testing ground for different types of military equipment and a unique "laboratory" for its technical improvement and tactical application.
Yet, alongside what might seem typical processes and phases for many wars (such as the First and Second World Wars, as well as the Korean War of 1950-1953), this war significantly differs from contemporary conflicts, at least those of the last three decades.
This war has become truly full-scale in Europe since the end of World War II. It involves the almost complete spectrum of weaponry, not only from the warring parties, but also a wide range of armaments from European countries and the USA. In this war, the technology and weaponry of industrially and technologically developed countries are being utilized.
A distinctive feature of this war is that it doesn't involve large-scale battles, yet the losses of military equipment, particularly Russian armored vehicles, are striking. According to official statistics, over less than a year and a half of war, the Ukrainian army destroyed around 4,300 Russian tanks and 8,300 armored fighting vehicles, totaling 12,600 combat units (roughly 24 units per day over 18 months). This doesn't even account for self-propelled artillery units and specialized vehicles. The total number of destroyed armored vehicles appears to be impressive, comparable to the overall number of armored vehicles in all of Europe! And such losses of Russian armored vehicles aren't the result of tank battles!
In most cases, the formation of these indicators was facilitated by the Ukrainian side's use of what could be referred to as "manual anti-tank artillery" – portable anti-tank missile systems received from foreign partners such as the "Javelin" and "NLAW." According to assessments by American military experts, the effectiveness of the Ukrainian military's use of the "Javelin" system in real combat conditions was around 90%, significantly surpassing the results of field trials conducted in the United States. The proportion of targets destroyed using "NLAW," according to Ukrainian estimates, accounts for 30-40% of the overall armored vehicle count.
A considerable amount of armored vehicles were also destroyed using various types of drones. It's hardly a mistake to claim that this war has elevated this technology to a full-fledged weapon and taken its application to a qualitatively new level. The Russians even designated them as a separate branch of their armed forces!
It's worth noting that some sources estimate Russia's tank potential before the war in Ukraine to be around 13,000 units. However, certain events in Russia raise doubts about whether all these tanks, in terms of their tactical and technical characteristics, meet modern requirements or are even combat-ready considering Russia's notorious negligence. Therefore, it's fairly safe to conclude that Russia's actual combat-ready tank fleet is around 7,000 units, including outdated models. The appearance of outdated T-62 tanks in the conflict zone supports these conclusions. Satellite imagery data also shows a noticeable reduction in the quantity of armored vehicles stored in Russian bases.
Your analysis regarding the destruction of Russian armored vehicles, specifically tanks, does indeed lead to another conclusion: over the course of a year and a half of war, Ukraine has essentially destroyed almost half of Russia's tank fleet! Could this fact, once again, be a clear confirmation that Ukrainian soldiers are effectively utilizing the high-tech weaponry provided to them by Western countries?
Here, it's important to note that the "Ukrainian military laboratory" has demonstrated high efficiency not only in the use of anti-tank assets but also in various other areas. Western military experts unanimously believe that artillery systems (rocket artillery, self-propelled and towed), air defense systems, reconnaissance systems, and a multitude of other weapons and equipment are being effectively utilized by Ukrainian soldiers, despite their minimal training periods and the challenging conditions of operating these weapons.
Speaking of air defense systems (PVO), the regular and concentrated Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities have showcased to the world Russia's disregard for international norms. The Russian "rocket terror" against the civilian population of Ukraine, social facilities, and vital infrastructure has exposed the Kremlin's inhumane policies aimed at destroying Ukrainian citizens. This situation couldn't leave the collective West indifferent, and thus, they provided Ukraine with a wide range of PVO systems – from heavy machine guns to state-of-the-art "Patriot" systems.
The results of this diverse arsenal are evident. In the span of a year and a half, Ukrainian PVO forces have destroyed over 300 Russian aircraft, the same number of helicopters, and about 1,400 (!) various types of guided missiles. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are at the forefront, accounting for more than 4,000 (!!!). It's undeniable that the quantity of destroyed equipment is staggering! This "assortment" would be sufficient to arm several European countries.
It's worth noting that many of the Western PVO systems deployed in Ukraine have demonstrated high effectiveness. There have been instances when they have successfully targeted all identified threats, primarily various types of guided missiles. Nonetheless, a question remained – the Russian aeroballistic missile "Kinjal" and ballistic missiles like the "Iskander," which Russian propaganda positioned as "invulnerable." The invulnerability of the latter proved to be quite conditional. The "Patriot" air defense system has shown its effectiveness in this regard and has proven its capability to intercept any type of Russian missile.
The conclusion is evident – stable and robust support from Ukraine's partners with high-tech weaponry: armored vehicles, ammunition, and potentially aircraft in the future – is the key to achieving success, an investment in a long-lasting and just peace.
This is how the battle of technologies in warfare has unfolded. It's also doubtful that, under the influence of global sanctions that restrict (or cease) access to advanced technologies, Russia will be able to reach the technical level it possessed as of February 23, 2022, in the coming years, let alone create something hastily in opposition to the likes of "Patriot," "Abrams," or any other technologically advanced armament.
Furthermore, scientists, skilled workers, advanced industries, and a powerful economy are all required. But they are lacking! What Russia does have are old rockets from the former USSR. Plenty of them! While Russian storage bases for various types of equipment might have been emptied, there's still a considerable amount left! As facts indicate, the Russian military-industrial complex is gaining momentum. Factories are working in three shifts! They are producing rockets, tanks, airplanes, not to mention smaller weaponry. Moreover, they manage to sell certain equipment abroad!
Yes, we acknowledge that Ukrainians have learned to fight, and the Ukrainian army today is the most trained and combat-ready army in Europe, and perhaps beyond. It has repeatedly demonstrated its professionalism and alignment with NATO standards. It can be said that it has already become a part of the NATO forces.
However, lessons have also been drawn from the actions of the Russian armed forces, and conclusions have been reached within the Kremlin. Mistakes have been recognized, and plans are being developed to rectify them. It must be admitted that Russia is not doing so badly in terms of military-industrial and financial resources for the war. Global economic sanctions are gradually yielding results, but not as quickly as desired. According to Putin's assurances, the country possesses sufficient means both for maintenance and for modernizing the Russian army. There are also "partners" who are supplying ammunition, components, and weapon samples to Russia, bypassing the sanctions. And there is a mobilization potential. According to official sources, Russia's mobilization capacity is estimated at 20 - 25 million people.
Recent events indicate Russia's preparation for a new phase of confrontation. In Ukraine. In Europe. In the world.
In the context of what has been outlined, the fully logical and appropriate stance for the civilized world, primarily the United States and Europe, has been and perhaps should be the comprehensive support of Ukraine. The only way to stop the Russian threat is through force and by defeating the Russian army in Ukraine. Only a battlefield defeat will compel Moscow to enter negotiations on Ukrainian terms, not its own.
This is a relatively small price that the collective West can and, arguably, should pay to Ukraine. Much now depends on Ukraine for the swift resolution of the conflict in the heart of Europe, and for all its sacrifices in the victory over the Russian aggressor, which threatens European stability.
Source: oglavnom.top
コメント