On July 17, 2023, the deadline for the "grain deal" (Black Sea Grain Initiative) expires. It is an agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN regarding the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports. It was signed almost a year ago, on July 22, 2022, when Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, which had been ongoing for several months, caused a sharp increase in food prices. Food prices on the global market were already rising before the Russian invasion, but it further escalated them worldwide, as Russia targeted Ukrainian food production and logistics in addition to energy infrastructure and civilian population. Dozens of farms, food and seed reserves, elevators, warehouses, oil depots, agricultural machinery, and equipment were damaged and destroyed by missile strikes and shelling from Russian forces. Ports were blocked, Ukrainian grain was seized and transported by land to Russian territory. All these destructive actions had an impact on the entire world. The Kremlin uses the lack of food security as a tool in its attempts to colonize recently occupied Ukrainian territories and exert influence on the global South, reshaping the food system and making it more dependent on Russia than ever before. Furthermore, due to the blockade of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea by Russia, millions of tons of grain could not be delivered to importers and were at risk of spoilage.
As of May 2022, more than 22 million tons of food remained in Ukrainian ports blocked by Russia. According to the International Grains Council, Ukraine has been the world's fourth-largest grain exporter in recent years. 90 percent of this raw material was shipped through Black Sea ports: before the Russian invasion, Ukrainian companies were exporting around 5 million tons of grain monthly through Black Sea ports. Caravans of bulk carriers, specialized ships for transporting bulk cargo, were heading from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, and they were all carrying Ukrainian wheat, corn, barley, and other grains without exaggeration.
According to the UN data as of June 8, 2022, the blockade of Ukrainian grain ships by Russia threatened around 20 million people worldwide with hunger (the majority of them in the poorest countries of Africa). According to Euronews, citing UNICEF on June 19, 2022, wheat prices in some regions of the world increased by 750 percent.
Once hailed by the former UN Secretary-General António Guterres as a "beacon of hope," the "grain deal" signed by Ukraine and Russia with Turkey and the UN separately on July 22, 2022, is on the brink of final termination. The agreements concerning the safe transportation of grain and food from Ukrainian ports have been repeatedly extended in recent months. The last extension was on May 17 for two months. As stated by Deputy Chairman of the State Enterprise "Administration of Ukrainian Sea Ports" (ASPU), Dmitry Barinov, during a meeting with journalists from Africa on July 15 in the Odessa seaport, "The complete halt of agri-product exports through the 'grain corridor' creates a food security threat to the entire global market and exacerbates the crisis in poor countries." According to his information, over the 11 months of the "grain initiative," Ukraine has supplied 32.5 million tons of agricultural products to 45 countries worldwide, including over 4 million tons of food to African countries.
Meanwhile, Russia has consistently emphasized that its interests within the deal are not being met, requirements are not being fulfilled, and Western sanctions are hindering the export of Russian agricultural products to the global market. While Western sanctions do not directly apply to grain exports from Russia, as indicated in Moscow, they complicate matters such as freight and insurance for shipments. Furthermore, Russia itself has limited grain exports through export taxes and, at times, even imposed export bans in recent years. On June 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Western countries had once again deceived Russia by not fulfilling its demands within the "grain deal" and that Moscow is considering withdrawing from it. On July 17, the press secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, announced that the Kremlin would not extend the "grain deal." "In fact, the Black Sea agreements have ceased to be in effect today. As the President of the Russian Federation previously stated, the deadline is July 17. Unfortunately, the part concerning Russia of these Black Sea agreements has not been fulfilled so far," stated Peskov.
The actual withdrawal of Russia from the agreement signifies a disregard for the interests of countries, particularly Africa, which rely on obtaining essential food supplies at affordable prices. Additionally, the Kremlin is seeking reasons to increase leverage by using the failure of the "grain deal" as a form of blackmail. In particular, the "mysterious explosion" on the Kerch Strait Bridge on July 17 could serve as one of those reasons.
In the event of Russia's final withdrawal from the agreement, Ukraine, together with its allies, is preparing to implement alternative options and routes for food export.
Source: nieuwsimpuls.online
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