On August 2nd, the Ministry of Defense of Poland announced that it is deploying "additional forces and resources, including combat helicopters," to its eastern border, accusing Belarus, Russia's closest ally, of violating Polish airspace on August 1st with two helicopters involved in exercises near the border. The airspace violation occurred in the Bialowieza area "at a very low altitude that is difficult to detect by radar." The Polish Minister of Defense informed NATO about the border violation, and the temporary chargé d'affaires of the Embassy of the Republic of Belarus was summoned to the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs to provide explanations.
This incident should be viewed as a deliberate provocation sanctioned at the highest level. Recently, Russia and Belarus have intensified their hybrid activities against Poland. This was particularly evident after the movement of 100 mercenaries from the private military company "Wagner," stationed in Belarus, towards the Suwalki Corridor. According to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, these actions are a "step towards further hybrid attacks on Polish territory." The presence of "Wagner" mercenaries in a neighboring state to Poland should be seen as a preparation for special provocations. If the dictator Lukashenko and the state itself are responsible for the actions of Belarusian security forces, there is no formal accountability for the actions of "Wagner" mercenaries. Ukraine has already seen a precedent of the use of illegal armed formations, so-called "green men" in Crimea, and the actions of Igor Strelkov (Girkin) in the Donetsk region, to carry out tasks set by the Kremlin.
The threat of a "hybrid attack" on Poland is fueled by provocative and aggressive statements from Putin and Lukashenko. During an online meeting with members of the Russian Security Council on July 21st, the Russian dictator accused Poland of preparing an armed aggression against Belarus and stated that aggression against Belarus would mean aggression against the Russian Federation, to which Russia would respond with all available means. According to Putin, Warsaw received the western lands of modern Poland "largely thanks to Stalin's position." On August 1st, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, claimed that his statements about barely restraining "Wagner" mercenaries from advancing into Poland were a joke. This indicates that the regimes of Putin and Lukashenko are testing Poland's and NATO's reactions with their provocative actions and rhetoric. In the future, an increase in the number and scale of provocations on the border can be expected. There are many options for provocations, but the overall goal is to create conflict zones and test how NATO will respond and what else can be expected. In fact, any conflict resulting from provocations can affect the territories of NATO member countries.
If Putin now dares to use his hybrid tactics against NATO member states, it will pose a complex challenge. It will be another escalation of the stakes while simultaneously attempting to force NATO to deal with either a hybrid attack or pretending to be dealing with non-compliant terrorists. A likely goal of escalating relations with NATO is to use Wagner mercenaries as leverage to gain concessions from Moscow in political bargaining related to the war in Ukraine. On Tuesday, August 1st, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder confirmed the US guarantee of the security of "every square centimeter" of NATO countries' territory, commenting on the air incident on the Polish-Belarusian border.
Source: 24brussels.online
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