Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has actively used food as a weapon in its genocidal war against the Ukrainians. Russian forces have damaged and destroyed dozens of farms, food and seed stocks, elevators, warehouses, oil depots, agricultural machinery, and equipment through missile strikes and shelling. Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea were blockaded until the signing of the "grain deal" (Black Sea Grain Initiative) in July 2022, an agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN for the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports, which has been repeatedly interrupted and resumed. On July 17, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russia is ending its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The specific conditions that prompted the Kremlin to withdraw from the deal were later stated by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The thesis about the West not fulfilling "promised agreements" regarding the export of Russian ammonia and the reconnection of "Rosselkhozbank" to the SWIFT system was voiced again. Among the reasons mentioned was the claim that Ukrainian food is allegedly being exported not to needy countries but to states with high and above-average income levels, including the EU. However, it should be noted that Russia's strategic goals, led by Putin, in this matter remain the same - to provoke a global food crisis and hunger, not only in Africa and Asia but also in Ukraine itself, in order to restore economic blackmail against Ukraine and political blackmail against the international community. Putin takes Stalin and his Holodomor policy of 1932-33, which resulted in the death of about 4 million Ukrainians, as an example to follow.
Ukrainian grain is critically important for ensuring the food security of countries dependent on food imports. Political stability in almost all African countries and the Middle East depends on food security. Putin is attempting to provoke global hunger: the cessation of Ukrainian grain exports will particularly impact the poorest countries in the world. Hunger can lead to a deterioration of the socio-economic situation, which in turn can trigger another wave of refugees from Africa to European Union countries. All of this is happening just a few days before the start of the "Russia-Africa" summit in St. Petersburg and is another blow to African leaders, following the missile attack on Kyiv during their visit on June 16.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, stated that Russia is "using hunger as a tool of pressure" to blackmail the entire world and pursue its own interests. According to him, the non-extension of the agreement means that food prices worldwide will rise again. African and Asian countries will feel the price increase first. Blackmail is Putin's favorite weapon. Since all other instruments do not work, he has decided to resort to such harsh actions. Putin's similar approach can be seen not only in grain agreements but also in energy and nuclear blackmail. This is also one of the elements of the hybrid war in Ukraine.
By announcing the cessation of Russia's participation in the "grain deal," Putin has put his colleague, the President of Turkey, in an "awkward position." Turkish President Erdogan stated on Friday, July 14, that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold the same opinion on extending the "grain deal." In reality, Erdogan has a wide range of options to respond to his Russian counterpart for abandoning the "grain deal," as Erdogan is the main beneficiary of the deal, with private companies in Turkey, particularly those close to the president's family, making enormous profits from grain transit and resale.
In the current economic conditions, the "grain deal" is more necessary for Russia than for Ukraine. Therefore, one should not yield to Russia's provocations but adhere to a firm position - continuing the agreement on the terms of Ukraine and the UN, rather than the aggressor country that is now essentially threatening to sink ships with civilian cargoes.
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