It's time to remove the phrase "great country" from the lexicon when referring to Russia. Just two decades ago, Russia had the concept of a future. In his 23 years in power, Putin destroyed that concept. Instead of constructive ideas for building a strong economic powerhouse, Putin decided to play the role of a great geopolitical player, a collector of "Russian lands."
Believing in his own uniqueness and impunity, Russia embarked on another insane and expansionist war. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine turned into a catastrophe for Russia. Putin's geopolitical adventure resulted in devastating losses and degradation. In a year and a half of war, Putin destroyed everything that had been built in Russia over the course of 31 years. Russia has driven itself into isolation and is now suffering from ideological collapse. Even Stalin's bloody regime did not lead to such international isolation. Russia has weakened and is deteriorating; it lacks both a strong military and a strong economy. It's a corrupt country ruled by the Kremlin elite, dooming its own people to ruin and impoverishment. As long as the deluded "great geostrategist" clings to power in the Kremlin, promoting some imagined greatness, Russia's isolation and economic decline will only worsen, and there will be no chance for development.
Today, Russia has indeed become the most aggressive and unpredictable country in the world, led by a mad dictator driven by one idea - to wage wars, seize foreign lands, and devour other nations.
Any form of support for Putin, even indirect, becomes toxic for many countries. The number of "friends of the great power" is sharply decreasing. International isolation forces Russia to seek allies, often of dubious reputation. A country that was once part of the G-8 has now decided to play in a multipolar world and seek "mutual respect for sovereignty" with African countries. There are no other allies on the horizon in the foreseeable future. Only two "comrades" remain: the controlled Lukashenko and the insane North Korean dictator.
The war in Ukraine has exposed the aggressive motives of Kremlin politics, leading more and more countries to seek to break free from Russia's influence. Russia's position on the international stage is rapidly deteriorating, and Putin is trying to share this catastrophe with countries that are relatively peripheral to Russia.
The collapse of the delusional plans of the Russian dictator has discredited the concept of Russia playing a global role. Weakened by the war in Ukraine, Russia has lost its leverage even over members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
The CSTO, which was essentially Putin's pocket organization created from the remnants of the USSR, was seen by him as an instrument of Russian foreign policy. Russia positioned itself as a great power, a global player capable of shaping the world order. However, the ability of the CSTO to provide security is diminishing in the eyes of many member countries, and dissatisfaction with the organization's activities, or lack thereof, is growing. Despite frequent talk of Russia's leadership, there is currently neither an offer of leadership from Russia nor a demand for Russian leadership from post-Soviet states.
Russia is starting to lose its remaining allies, of which there were already very few. Russia has lost its positions in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, as it can no longer bear the burden of its foreign policy, leading to significant shifts in the balance of relations in these regions. The Kremlin is forced to pretend that nothing is happening, as it is no longer capable of reacting to events. Weakened and mired in the war in Ukraine, Russia cannot fulfill its direct obligations to its allies in the CSTO, as it has exhausted its potential on Ukrainian soil and is now struggling even to hypothetically participate in decisions related to its former areas of interest.
Another high-profile defeat for Russia, both geopolitically and in terms of image, in the situation with Nagorno-Karabakh has brought the question of the feasibility of the CSTO back to the forefront. How does the "ally" Russia, bound by a military treaty with Yerevan and a member of the CSTO, respond to Azerbaijan's swift operation to regain control of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh)? Russia launches a propaganda campaign against Armenia, accusing it of "betraying Russia." The official Moscow's inaction regarding the killing of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh creates an unpleasant domestic political backdrop for the Russian president's administration.
Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan, predictably, called the security structures on which his country had relied recently ineffective and stated that "relying on Russia and dependence on it were a strategic mistake."
The precedent of Azerbaijan regaining control over Karabakh could indeed trigger a chain reaction regarding other territories with ambiguous status in the post-Soviet space. Yes, the CSTO partners should consider this, as many of them have neighbors with clear or hidden claims to various territories.
Russia's international reputation after the attack on Ukraine is such that many CSTO members are not averse to distancing themselves from Moscow. Kazakhstan has already indicated that its relations with the West are more important than friendship with Russia. This is likely related to the clear statement by Kazakhstan's leader, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, that Astana will comply with all anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the West.
The fate of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) seems to be sealed. It is inevitably heading towards dissolution. This organization has become toxic even in terms of relationships. Only a madman would choose to stay with Russia, the "sinking ship" in global geopolitics.
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