Putin will hide from the UN and the Council of Europe the imposition of martial law and the start of general mobilization.
Putin will not inform the Council of Europe about the imposition and lifting of martial law in Russia. According to existing norms, when Russia declares martial or exceptional conditions in the country, it should notify the Secretaries-General of the UN and the Council of Europe of its deviation from its obligations under international agreements regarding the restriction of rights and freedoms of Russians. This obligation corresponded to the requirements of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms.
Earlier, in February 2022, the Council of Europe condemned Russia's recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed "DPR" and "LPR," as well as its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe suspended Russia's representation in the organization, depriving it of the right to participate in the work of the committee itself, the Parliamentary Assembly, and other bodies.
With a high degree of probability, mobilization in Russia may be announced no earlier than the end of September, which is due to the elections to the parliament and local authorities of Russia (September 10). In order not to cause a negative effect and not to reduce the rating of the presidential party "United Russia," the announcement of the imposition of martial law and the beginning of general mobilization will be made only after the announcement of the election results.
Most wars are fast and last only a few months. But those that last more than a year usually drag on for more than a decade. Considering Putin's ideological commitment to the invasion and the incentives that shape his decisions, the Russo-Ukrainian war could well fit into this historical precedent.
Such a protracted conflict poses serious risks both for Ukraine and the West. A prolonged war will not only increase the number of casualties and destruction in Ukraine but also increase the likelihood of reduced Western support. This could lead to the worst possible outcome of this war - Russia expanding its territorial control over Ukraine.
If NATO countries want to avoid the risks of a protracted conflict, they must provide more support to Ukraine. First and foremost, Kyiv needs effective and more abundant weaponry. In particular, Ukraine needs more ammunition and air defense systems, as well as highly mobile artillery missile systems, salvo-fired systems, and tanks. NATO countries should also provide long-range weapons that will allow Ukraine to strike at long distances, particularly against Russian targets in Crimea. The West can also empower Ukraine by providing it with more powerful offensive air assets, such as fighters and modern drones.
Source: 24Brussels
Comments