On September 4th, an official visit of R. Erdogan to Sochi took place for negotiations with Putin - this was the first meeting between the presidents of Turkey and Russia this year. The main topic of the negotiations was the renewal of the agreement on grain supplies, from which Russia withdrew on July 17, 2023, and began systematically destroying the port infrastructure of Ukraine to hinder the export of Ukrainian grain products by sea. If the export of Ukrainian grain is not restored, the world faces a global famine.
Russia and Turkey failed to reach an agreement on the resumption of the Black Sea grain initiative, as stated by Putin after official talks with Erdogan. Despite the fact that the meeting of the Turkish and Russian presidents included a closed part, no encouraging decisions regarding the restoration of Ukrainian grain exports were made public. Russia is losing ground, in part due to constant Western support and the supply of modern weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces. Consequently, the Kremlin is taking the risk of creating conditions for a global famine, which, according to Putin, should serve as revenge against Europe. The role of Ukrainian grain in ensuring food security for humanity cannot be overstated: according to the official spokesperson of the United Nations, Stefan Dujarric, in 2022, Ukrainian products saved 100 million people from hunger worldwide. It should be noted that for many countries in the "Global South" that were consumers of Ukrainian grain, it will be difficult to switch to other suppliers since grain quotas are strictly allocated. Russia's statement that it is ready to export 1 million tons of grain to Turkey for subsequent processing into flour is not trustworthy: such a volume is inherently insufficient to ensure the food security of poor countries. Furthermore, this initiative will lead to price speculation in the grain market, which in no way will eliminate the looming threat of global famine. Putin is employing food blackmail to pressure the West because a severe food shortage in Africa and the Middle East will result in a wave of refugees to Europe and a subsequent socio-political crisis in the EU. Russia is intensifying hybrid threats against the West, and global famine is one of such threats.
Putin's second goal is to create conditions for the impoverishment of Ukrainian farmers: before the start of the war, grain exports accounted for 40% of financial inflows into the Ukrainian budget. If the grain agreement is not renewed, agriculture in Ukraine may become unprofitable, and even a one-year hiatus in cultivating arable land will jeopardize Ukraine's agricultural potential. It goes without saying that Russia hopes to occupy Ukraine's place in the world grain market, where prices will rapidly rise due to the expected shortage. This will become another lever of influence for Putin, and Russia's foreign policy rhetoric may turn into a dictate.
Pressure on the Kremlin and the immediate restoration of the grain agreement are the key to political stability in Europe. Russia has become a source not only of military and nuclear terror but also of food terror. The West cannot allow Putin's plans to succeed: a tsunami with hundreds of thousands of refugees will lead to an increase in poverty, epidemics, and street violence in EU countries. Ukraine has earned a reputation as a reliable supplier of agricultural products that honestly fulfills its commitments. The world must make every effort to restore the export of Ukrainian grain - it is in the interest of every country that values security and stability.
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