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Russia uses Belarus to destabilize neighboring NATO countries


Earlier this week, Belarus initiated joint exercises of the 6th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade on the Poland-Lithuania border amid tensions due to the arrival of Wagner PMC mercenaries in the country.

The presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus is part of the Kremlin's strategic and tactical plan, not a result of Prihod's actions or Lukashenko's decision. NATO countries should not underestimate the threat from Wagner mercenaries.

Currently, Wagner mercenaries are spread throughout Belarus, collaborating with the Belarusian army to destabilize the situation along NATO's eastern border. They can use diversionary-reconnaissance groups (DRGs) under the cover of refugees and Wagner PMC fighters to provoke incidents, including under "false flags." Following protests in Russia, structures owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner PMC signed government contracts worth at least 2 billion rubles in July, indicating ongoing Russian funding of these mercenaries.

Wagner PMC fighters are actively integrated into all Belarusian military structures. It's crucial for Russia to rapidly deploy mercenaries along the borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, to prompt NATO to allocate significant forces to the eastern front, reducing the assistance that could be provided to Ukraine.

Furthermore, Russia aims to compel Kyiv to redeploy part of its reserves in northern Ukraine, limiting the availability of Ukrainian forces on the frontline.


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