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Russian Aggression Prospects



In his commentary to The New York Times, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president, outlined the Kremlin's position regarding Ukrainian territories and the possibility of a peaceful resolution. According to his words, Russia aims to control all Ukrainian regions that were previously included in the Russian constitution. He stated that there are no grounds for a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Ukraine. Peskov expressed the opinion that Russia's military operation in Ukrainian territories will continue in the future.


It's worth recalling that on October 6, 2022, the Russian authorities published a new version of the Constitution, which included temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine in the list of Russian subjects. The first two regions were "incorporated" into Russia as the so-called "DPR" and "LPR," while Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions were left as territories by the occupiers.


Following Peskov's statement, the Kremlin likely intends to continue significant military operations against Ukraine, aiming to capture at least the remaining parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions that Russian forces have not yet occupied. Russian forces will need to conduct substantial offensive operations to capture over 16,000 square kilometers of land in these four regions, in order to align the de facto Russian-occupied territory with the Russian constitution. Given the current situation on the fronts, it can be confidently stated that the Kremlin's plans are unrealistic.


In response to Peskov's statement, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, noted that there are no Ukrainian territories listed in the Russian Constitution that it supposedly claims. There are only temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine where active combat actions are taking place, and these territories will be liberated. He also emphasized that the Russian Federation's Constitution has no relevance to stable legal documents, and its content should not be considered a basis for "territorial claims against Ukraine."


Furthermore, on September 10, 2023, Russia plans to hold so-called "elections" in the captured Ukrainian territories to use them as self-justification and legitimization of the occupation. These "elections" are also intended to create an illusion of democratic processes in the occupied territories and to draw local residents into the Russian electoral field, weakening their ties with Ukraine. This date is chosen not by chance, as it coincides with Russia's "Single Voting Day," which includes elections at various levels of authority. Ukrainian citizens who remained to live and work in the occupied territories are compelled to obtain Russian passports, facilitating their integration into Russian society. To counter such "elections," Ukraine will seek to have them recognized as meaningless at the level of the United Nations General Assembly, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and other international platforms. If Russia proceeds with the so-called "elections" in the occupied territories, it will not change anything for Ukraine, as per the norms of international law, no elections in occupied territories can legitimize Russian annexation.


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