After the failed coup attempt by Wagner PMC mercenaries at the end of June, they began to arrive en masse in Belarus. Subsequently, Alexander Lukashenko claimed that he was barely containing the Russian mercenaries who allegedly sought to go on a "tour to Warsaw and Jeshuv." Poland reported the transfer of Wagner mercenaries to its borders. The head of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma, Andrei Kartapolov, stated on one of the Russian propaganda shows that Wagner PMC was sent to Belarus "not only and not so much" to train the Belarusian armed forces, but because Russia would need the Suwalki Corridor in case of anything.
The Belarusian foothold is used as a strategically important area for creating threats and Russian information special operations. These special operations aim to intimidate the West and put pressure on it. The presence of Wagner PMC in Belarus is a tool in hybrid warfare, an attempt at informational pressure. As an information attack, it will continue, but will it reach a direct attempt to infiltrate Wagner PMC into Polish territory? That is doubtful.
Currently, there are about 5,000 mercenaries from the Wagner private military company in Belarus. According to some information, the camp itself in the Ciel area can accommodate up to 8,000 mercenaries, or even more. However, even 8,000 is not sufficient for conducting a military operation. But this does not mean that provocations should not be expected. There may be threats of terrorist and diversionary activities in the border area from Wagner mercenaries towards Poland and Lithuania. The Suwalki Corridor, the land territory between Belarus and the Kaliningrad Oblast, located on the NATO countries' border, Poland and Lithuania, may be one of the targets for provocations. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated on July 29 that over a hundred Wagner mercenaries had headed in that direction. A group of this size is usually used to carry out minor tactical tasks. This could be local operations by the Wagner group, a linear scenario under the guise of refugees penetrating Polish territory to provoke, as well as assisting illegal migrants in entering Poland to create a migration crisis and destabilize the situation in the country, but nothing more. Wagner mercenaries do not have the forces, weaponry, and mechanized equipment needed for an invasion of Poland. However, the Kremlin and Minsk regimes may well use Wagner mercenaries in the format of hybrid warfare and, if necessary, blame the mercenaries themselves and declare that Wagner mercenaries have nothing to do with the Russian armed forces, Russia, and Belarus themselves, so Putin and Lukashenko bear no responsibility for any provocations.
Comments