The unprecedented aggressive war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine demonstrates Putin's imperial ambitions, which pose a global destabilization threat, spilling over the edges of the 21st century. Russia blatantly commits crimes, completely disregarding existing norms of international law. Russian imperial revanchism holds the world hostage, destroying established international security structures and principles, particularly the principle of territorial integrity. Russia has generated external threats on multiple occasions, conducting both hybrid and overt wars against countries that are not yet NATO members. This has been made possible in large part due to the Western policy of non-intervention. The signing of the Budapest Memorandum, which failed to provide effective protection mechanisms, the illusory promises in Bucharest in 2008, symbolic sanctions after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the war in Donbass—these are just a few examples of the Western policy of non-intervention and respect for the existence of frozen spheres of influence in Eastern Europe.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine was driven not by the possibility of NATO expansion but, on the contrary, by the understanding of its unlikelihood. Russia has acted similarly in Moldova, Georgia, Syria, and several African countries. Russia seeks to establish political footholds in Eurasia, strengthen its military presence (creating Russian military bases, blocs of satellites), deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, and expand its presence in the Arctic, all of which pose significant risks on the borders of European countries and create a new spectrum of security challenges.
Russian aggression is provoked by the distance or absence of the North Atlantic Alliance, guarantees of protection, and Western contingents at its borders. Russian propaganda claims that Ukraine's NATO membership would bring war to the entire European continent, but this is far from true. Russia would not dare to cross the border of any NATO member country. The best evidence of this is the Baltic states, which could have easily become targets of Russian aggression if they had not joined the alliance. Russia has never engaged in overt confrontation with any NATO member, despite threats made by Russian propagandists and some officials towards Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. NATO enlargement is a guarantee against Russian expansion. Today, as Ukraine continues to fight for its right to exist at the cost of tens of thousands of lives, it is time for NATO to abandon gray areas and strategic uncertainty. "Gray areas are a green light" for Russian aggression. Ukraine is currently paying a very high price to make the world safer. The "unreformed" Ukraine is now defending all democratic European countries from the Russian aggressor, effectively acting as a shield against the Russian horde. By actively resisting Russian invasion, Ukraine demonstrates that it is worthy of NATO membership and has already proven itself as a key part of transatlantic security. The North Atlantic Alliance must send a clear signal that it is open to inviting Ukraine into NATO. As long as Kyiv does not receive clear timelines for full membership in NATO, the war will continue in the country. At the same time, despite the war, Ukraine is rapidly moving towards implementing NATO standards. Ukrainians are actively employing modern warfare tactics. Ukrainian membership in NATO will provide the alliance with the presence of the only army and society in Europe experiencing a modern full-scale war. Moreover, Ukraine's acceptance into the organization would be much more economically efficient than the financial and military aid packages that member countries promise to continue providing "as much as needed." Ukraine's NATO membership is also important for Western investors who will invest in the reconstruction of the Ukrainian state. At the same time, if Ukraine does not obtain NATO member status, it will constantly be under the threat of Russian aggression. Therefore, Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance guarantees the security of Western investments as well.
It is evident that the legal aspects of organization expansion require time, and Ukraine will not become a part of NATO in one day. However, the collective West must clearly articulate and implement its intention to accept a new ally into the bloc within compressed time frames.
Alternative "security guarantees" that do not correspond to the level of NATO membership cannot replace actual membership in the alliance. NATO is the only security guarantee that is taken seriously in the world. Delaying this process or offering alternative "security guarantees" is a voluntary consent to further expansion by the Russian aggressor, which will only be stopped where it is halted. Former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker stated that working towards expediting Ukraine's membership will "shorten this war and prevent the next one."
The Vilnius summit of the alliance should record the commitment to grant membership to Ukraine.
Comments