On July 23rd, Putin and Lukashenko met in St. Petersburg. Alexander Lukashenko presented a new map with a plan for attacking Belarus, and he narrated another tale about the "disintegration of Ukraine," accusing Poland of desiring to annex western Ukrainian territories. Such rhetoric had previously come from Putin's mouth. During the meeting with the Russian dictator, Lukashenko attempted to play along, trying to scare Poland by feigning outrage over "Wagner" mercenaries wanting to take a stroll to Warsaw. Quoting statements from "Wagner" members, the Belarusian dictator hinted at the possibility of using Wagner's PMC mercenaries against Poland, urging unfriendly neighbors to behave accordingly instead of acting aggressively, as they currently are. These threats are essentially a cheap and primitive attempt to intimidate from the entrenched Belarusian and Russian dictators, a result of their inability to prevent Western military aid from passing through Poland to Ukraine. It is another desperate attempt to divert the attention of the Ukrainian Armed Forces away from the eastern and southern fronts and force them to allocate some of their reserves to the northern direction to avoid threats from that side.
Belarusian territory is strategically used to create threats and risks to Ukraine and the West, a goal that Lukashenko has pursued throughout the war.
According to many analysts, considering intelligence data and imagery from the American company Maxar Technologies, Belarus currently lacks sufficient potential and equipment for launching an invasion into Ukraine from its territory. Moreover, the hypothetical idea of Wagner mercenaries advancing into Polish territory appears to be far-fetched and unlikely, although it is nearly impossible to predict the thoughts of current officials. However, further talks on this matter seem unlikely, although the possibility of some imitation of vigorous activity, such as "intimidation actions" near the Polish border, cannot be excluded.
The PMC Wagner in Belarus does not represent a military threat to Poland or Ukraine, at least until they are equipped with the necessary weapons and mechanized equipment. Even in such a case, attempts to scare Poland with "Wagner" would be in vain since it is a NATO country protected by the guarantees of the Alliance's collective security. Despite multiple threats from the Kremlin, Putin is unlikely to engage in open confrontation with the Alliance.
However, "Wagner" indeed poses a threat to Belarus itself. Belarusians are merely hostages in a very dirty political game. Wagner mercenaries have started conducting combat training with representatives of the Belarusian armed forces. What they will do next is difficult to say. Most likely, Yevgeny Prigozhin will do whatever he deems necessary. The presence of thousands of armed mercenaries on Belarusian territory is a slow-acting mine that could create internal problems for Belarus and lead to a surge of terrorism and violence within the country. Moreover, inviting mercenaries turns Lukashenko's regime into a sponsor of international terrorism.
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