The Russian economy, despite Putin's claims of its stability and reliability, is sliding dangerously towards an impending crisis. Military expenditures are on the rise, and elections are looming in the Kremlin. All components of Russia's private demand, including private investments and consumption, remain in decline. Non-energy imports from Russia have decreased by almost 60%, with the most significant drop in trade of iron and steel, precious metals, and wood. This trend is accelerating: in the first quarter of 2023, the fall in non-energy imports exceeded 75%, and for energy products, it is even higher, reaching 80%. Only government expenditures related to military actions, i.e., defense spending, are increasing.
Today, Russia is more isolated than ever on the world stage. At least 140 countries, representing two-thirds of UN member states, have repeatedly voted in the United Nations General Assembly to affirm the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, condemning Putin's illegal attempts to annex Ukrainian territory and denouncing Russia's aggression and atrocities. Governments from the West, East, North, and South have voted in favor of excluding Russia from numerous organizations, ranging from the UN Human Rights Council to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Russian candidates have consecutively lost elections for key positions in international organizations, from the UNICEF Board to the leadership of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).
Sanctions and export controls imposed by the United States, the European Union, Ukraine, and other partners worldwide have inflicted significant damage on Russia's military industry and arms exports, pushing them back years. International defense partners and customers of Russia can no longer rely on promised orders, let alone spare parts. As they witness Russia's setbacks on the battlefield, they are increasingly inclined to sever ties with it.
In the span of a year and a half, the Russian ruble has set several record lows, showing a continuous decline. There is no evidence that sanctions will be lifted. Consequently, they will continue to have a detrimental impact on Russia's trading partners. The devaluation of the ruble affects the earnings of labor migrants, including many Turkmen, Uzbeks, Armenians, and Belarusians. As they are paid in rubles in Russia, their incomes gradually become comparable to those in their home countries.
Several recent events indicate that Armenia is gradually moving away from Russia's sphere of influence toward the West. Armenia is making a strategic shift. For the first time in 200 years, the country is changing its political course and ceasing to be a Russian colony. Armenia's Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, believes that Armenia's exclusive security dependence on Russia was a "strategic mistake." Following Armenia, another ally, Kazakhstan, is slowly but surely distancing itself from Russia, reducing its dependence on it and moving toward the United States and the West. Thus, Kazakhstan will demonstrate its commitment to all anti-Russian sanctions, as promised by President Qasym-Jomart Tokayev. It is evident that Kazakhstan does not want to become a Russian satellite (as Belarus, for example) and seeks to diversify its relationships.
Today, the Russian Federation is the most heavily sanctioned country in the world, and sanctions are currently the most effective tool for influencing this aggressor country by the civilized global community. Sanctions against Russia will intensify. Their effect erodes Russia's economy and industry slowly but steadily. The transformation of Russia into a North Korea is only a matter of time. The destructive impact of sanctions against Russia will inevitably affect anyone who continues to engage in trade with it. Russia's economy, mired in quicksand, is a trap to be avoided at all costs. Consequently, when Russia becomes completely impoverished and a declining nation, it will inexorably drag its allies into its fall.
Relations with Russia since 2022 have become openly undesirable and dangerous for other states due to the process of this country's international isolation. Today, Putin is attempting to form an anti-Western bloc by enticing cooperation with the former Soviet republics with supposed benefits. This is another myth that the Kremlin is trying to use to lure post-Soviet countries into the same trap it has fallen into. However, the war in Ukraine has clearly demonstrated the economic and technological advantage of the West. Today, Russia's economy is merely a shadow of what it once was and a small part of what it could have become if Putin had invested in technology and innovation rather than in weapons and war.
Source: toptribune.today
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